🔷 Tower 22: 1 year later

Tower 22: 1 year later

This week marks the one-year anniversary of the attack on Tower 22.

On January 28th, 2024, the tiny US outpost in the desert along the Jordan-Syria border was attacked by a drone launched by an Iranian-backed militia group.

Three American troops died, and at least 47 others were injured—marking the first time a US troop was killed from an aerial attack in 70 years.

However, one year later, the critical question remains: Has the US learned the right lessons from Tower 22, and what actions have been taken since?

The Good

First, the good: the Pentagon has made strides in the counter-drone point-defense space.

The Joint C-sUAS Office (JCO), established in 2020 based on observing drones in Syria, has expanded its mission with a brand new strategy emphasizing:

1. Proactive Threat Mitigation: Identifying and addressing threats before they manifest on the battlefield.

2. Supporting the Pentagon’s recent over-arching counter-drone strategy (released last month)

Beyond strong words and re-organizations, some notable solution progress has also been made:

• High-Power Microwave (HPM) weapons. The Army bought and deployed drone-zapping HPMs from Epirus via the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office (RCCTO)—then bought some more.

• Laser weapons. The Army quickly deployed four DE M-SHORAD (Directed Energy Maneuver Short-Range Air Defense) Stryker vehicles equipped with 50-kilowatt lasers to the Middle East. A few months later, the Army deployed two 20-kilowatt Palletized High Energy Laser (P-HEL) systems.

• M-LIDS: The Army deployed its new M-LIDS (Mobile Low, Slow Unmanned Aircraft Integrated Defense System) counter-drone system for the first time. The MRAP-based system pairs direction-finding sensors, a multi-mission radar with a 30mm chain gun, and Coyote Block 2 interceptors—and it can be networked to an off-board launcher, too.

• Replicator 2: the Pentagon launched Replicator 2, a program modeled after Replicator 1, but instead of one-way attack drones, this is focused on rapidly fielding counter-drone tech to protect bases and force concentrations in the field.

Some Issues

Not all of those efforts have gone as smoothly as everyone hoped.

The HPM prototype deployment required some post-delivery tweaks before it was deemed ready to deploy. The P-HEL laser deployment evaluation revealed it needs more work before it’s a credible combat capability.

On the heels of its first M-LIDS deployment, the Army is already looking to enhance it and shift the system from its MRAP base to a Stryker, making it more closely aligned to the laser-equipped Strykers.

More Progress

Epirus seems to have dialed in its HPM and plans to showcase 'one-to-many' defense in early 2025 by taking down a 100-drone swarm in a single blast—“it’s going to rain drones.”

Raytheon’s Block Coyote has racked up 169+ kills, and the Coyote Block 3 variant just completed development for the Navy’s FAST effort (Future Advanced Strike) and features a non-kinetic payload with a multi-target capability.

Finally, the Navy has integrated Hellfire missiles on Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) to defend against drones.

The Bigger Problem

All of this is good, but addressing the Tower 22 type of threat is but a piece of a much larger puzzle.

Protecting an airbase in the Pacific is orders of magnitude more complex than protecting an outpost in the Middle East.

Furthermore, the organizational problem exacerbates this operational problem.

The Army defends air bases, while the Air Force delivers close air support (CAS) to the Army—a framework set by the 1948 Key West Agreement.

In the GWOT era, the Army gutted base defense—holistically de-prioritized and de-emphasized—while the Air Force double-downed on providing CAS.

Defense, Discounted

As the Pentagon’s pivot to the Pacific (slowly) started, the Army’s narrative has been focused on offense—projecting power—and not on defense.

It’s devolved to the point that the (now-former) Secretary of the Air Force publicly stated interest in taking on the mission of protecting itself since the Army has not prioritized it.

Of course, this means a shift of accompanying resources (manpower and money), which makes it a political football.

Accordingly, the Army’s counter-narrative is that base defense is everyone’s problem, and each service should protect itself and invest in doing so.  

Looking Ahead

Tower 22 was a tragedy, but it should be a wake-up call—a canary in the coal mine for vulnerabilities in base defense. While progress has been made, much work remains, especially as the Pentagon pivots toward the Pacific.

This is a critical issue demanding decisive leadership and urgent action.

With new leadership in the Pentagon bringing fresh perspectives, 2025 could be the turning point.

Let’s hope it will be.

In That Number

$500 Billion

OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced Stargate—a $500 Billion joint effort to build out data centers and the electricity generation needed for the further development of AI.

While details remain vague and the effort is aimed at the commercial market, there are potentially significant second-order benefits to the Department of Defense.

TRIVIA

On this day in 1945, Audie Murphy performed the heroic actions that earned him the Medal of Honor. What did he do?

A) Single-handedly held off an entire German company while wounded

B) Neutralized a German tank column with a bazooka during a raid that rescued 50 prisoners of war

C) Saved his entire platoon by attacking a tank with a knife and hand grenade

On the Radar

The Marine Corps XQ-58 Valkyrie development continues. Kratos was awarded a $34.8M contract for mission systems integration under the PAACK-P experimentation program. The acronym doesn’t matter since the effort will transition later this year to an acronym that does matter: MUX TACAIR (Marine Air-Ground Task Force Unmanned Aerial System Expeditionary (MUX) Tactical Aircraft (TACAIR)).

• The Merge’s Take: MUX TACAIR is the Marine Corps CCA program of record and presumably looks to be accelerating the MQ-58B electronic attack variant of the Valkyrie (using a Northrop Grumman payload). Keep an eye on this since it has a high chance of beating the Air Force to field the US military’s first CCA combat capability. The real question is the lack of any mention of autonomy. Without it, MUX TACAIR risks being more of a jet-powered MQ-9 than a true Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).

Airbus & Boeing may exit the space market in 2025. That’s what Space Capital’s latest investment trends report predicts. The evidence: Boeing’s Starliner is expected to book another loss this quarter, adding to the $1.85B it’s lost on the program so far. Boeing is also a key vendor in NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), a politically sensitive program given its cost, time, and competition with SpaceX. Airbus is cutting 1,000+ jobs from its space segment in efforts to control costs—its 2024 sales were up 7%...but profits were down 22%.

• The Merge’s Take: The rapidly expanding commercial satellite and launch markets are driving intense competition in the space sector—an environment where large incumbents and their traditional corporate structures struggle to keep pace. As Boeing seeks to offset ongoing losses, expect parts of its business to be sold throughout 2025—and the space segment could be one of them.

They Said It
“I would argue that more missions have been planned and enemies targeted with Microsoft Excel and Powerpoint than any other defense-focused technology, making Microsoft the most successful dual-use company.”

— Enrique Oti, Chief Strategy Officer at Second Front Systems, describing the nature of “dual-use technology” for the military.

That’s an epic quote.

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Knowledge Bombs

• The Space Force expects to spend 40% more on commercial SATCOM in 2025, totaling a whopping $2.37B

• Lockheed Martin demoed a new interface to permit the F-35 to quarterback drones

• General Atomics was awarded an Air Force contract to upgrade the XQ-67A to support the new Demon Ape program (Demonstration of ACP Performance and Effectiveness)

• China reportedly completed testing of a classified hypersonic air-to-air missile

• India conducted its first scramjet engine test, a step towards hypersonic missile development

• North Korea delivered rocket launcher systems disguised as civilian trucks to Russia

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ANSWER
A. After calling in artillery strikes, Audie Murphy climbed onto a burning tank destroyer, manned a .50 caliber machine gun, and single-handedly held off an entire German company for an hour—despite being wounded.

By the end of World War II, Murphy had earned every combat award for valor available from the U.S. Army, becoming the most decorated soldier of the war and in American history. Remarkably, he achieved all of this before his 21st birthday.