🔷 The GPS Mess

The GPS Mess

GPS, the Global Positioning System, is the backbone of positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services for both military and civilian applications worldwide. While other GNSS constellations exist (Galileo, BeiDou etc.), GPS remains the most prevalent.

However, its modernization is mired in delays and challenges.

GPS 101

At its core, GPS requires 3 essential components to be usable: satellites in orbit, ground control stations to manage the constellation, and user equipment to interpret the signals.

A 3D positioning fix requires receiving signals from at least 4 satellites (it’s technically a 4D fix because timing only requires 1 satellite, but we’re simpletons here).

M-Code

One of the biggest capabilities underlying GPS modernization is called M-code, a secure and jam-resistant signal for military use. It’s not only 3X more accurate; it uses a wider frequency band, a higher power signal option, and a different crypto-keying architecture.

Translation: this all requires 1) a new constellation, 2) a new ground segment, and 3) new user receivers to use it.

The effort to modernize this system began in 2000, and 24 years later, it’s worth understanding how it’s all going.

The Satellites

First, the good news: The required 24 M-code capable satellites have been built and are all in orbit and operational right now (a mix of 3 variants).

These include 5 of the purpose-built GPS III satellites that have 3X accuracy and 8X jamming resistance due to flex power (when it’s called upon). 10 of these have been built; 6 have been launched to date.

There is a follow-on lot called GPS IIIF, a $7.2B program that should be launching in 2027. These satellites have a whopping 60X jamming resistance due to a directional antenna capability called Regional Military Protection (the round antenna on top of our feature image).

Lockheed Martin is the contractor for all of these GPS satellite versions.

The Ground Segment

The ground control segment of these satellites is called the Next Generation Operational Control System (OCX) and started in 2010 with a $886m contract to RTX. The OCX program was projected to cost $3.9B and field in 2016.

Now the bad news: $4.5B has been spent to date, but it's now projected to cost $7.6B to complete OCX (Blocks 0-2), which hopes to field in 2025—nearly a decade behind schedule.

More bad news: This will allow control of all the satellites in orbit but not the more capable ones launching in 2027. That requires OCX Block 3F, a $433m upgrade program to OCX that started in 2021 (and is running in parallel since the baseline isn’t operational).

In 2016, the Air Force saw these delays on the horizon and tapped Lockheed Martin for an interim ground segment solution called Contingency Operations (COps), which has been operational since 2020. This contains Military-Code (M-code) Early Use (MCEU), a gap filler capability until OCX Block 1 is ready.

It’s a confusing mess—but it doesn’t get better.

User Equipment

The final piece of GPS modernization—user equipment—is where it goes from bad to worse.

The next-gen receivers are called Military GPS User Equipment (MGUE) and are split into 2 efforts: Increment 1 is for large things (ships, bombers, etc.), and Increment 2 is for small things (weapons, hand-held devices, etc.).

MGUE requires a new type of card, which houses a purpose-built computer chip to use M-code.

The cards were contracted to L3Harris, RTX, and BAE, and the chips were contracted to 1 vendor: GlobalFoundries.

MGUE Increment 1 was originally planned to field in 2017….but hopes to now field in 2025—but now risks a chip shortage

Why: In 2019, GlobalFoundries told the Pentagon they were phasing out production because the custom M-code chips were obsolete.

As a stop-gap, the Pentagon initiated a bulk buy of 1 million chips in 2021 to get the US and its allies through 2030. There are many card and receiver variations, but still only 1 stockpile of chips.

MGUE Increment 2 is incorporating all those lessons: it includes a new chip design that combines commercial tech with military functions. MGUE Inc 2 is a rapid prototyping effort with 2 parts: MSI (Miniaturized Serial Interface) and the hand-held receiver.

MSI is making progress and on track to field in 2027, but the smaller hand-held effort is yet another plot twist in the GPS saga.

Despite being the largest beneficiary of these handheld GPS radios, in 2023, the Army stated they had no intentions of buying these Space Force receivers—grenading the business case of the chip and card development.

Piling on the bad news, the Marine Corps has said they want to see an open competition before deciding on the receivers.

What Now

2025 is a make-it-or-break-it year for GPS modernization—it will become a strategic liability or an advantage.

Expect fireworks in Congress, more public shaming of contractors, and a ton of peer pressure to get the services on the same page.

Meanwhile, it is the warfighter who assumes all the risk.

In That Number

95

A new report revealed that Ukraine used GNSS spoofing to divert 95 Shahed one-way attack drones launched by Russia…back into Russia.

TRIVIA

On this day in 1941, President Franklin D. Roosevelt gave his famous "Day of Infamy" speech to Congress following the attack on Pearl Harbor. What else is noteworthy about this 6-minute speech, resulting in something that happened later that day?

[no multiple choice this week—we gave you 2 clues, though.]

On the Radar

The Air Force is deferring its 6th-gen NGAD fighter decision for the next administration. It’s committing some contract extensions and money to keep the industry’s engineering teams together by asking them to revise their proposals.

• The Merge’s Take: This could be a complete coincidence, but the 2 presumed competitors on the program both announced leadership changes in the divisions working NGAD. Boeing’s air dominance chief retired, and Lockheed Martin’s legendary Skunk Works got a new boss. 2025 is going to be an interesting year!

The Pentagon announced a new counter-drone strategy. The plan is classified but has an unclassified fact sheet. For some good context, check out The War Zone coverage.

• The Merge’s Take: We have no idea who wrote the strategic ways of this plan, but he clearly summoned the spirit of Patches O'Houlihan. The 5 D’s from the counter-drone strategy are Deepen, Disrupt, Defend, Deliver, and Develop. Patches’ Dodgeball version: Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive and Dodge.

The head of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) suggested officials should take another look at how many bombers the Pentagon needs. There are 141 bombers today, and the plan is to get to 176 with 100 B-21s + 76 B-52Js. Gen. Thomas Bussiere’s suggested number is 220 bombers.

• The Merge’s Take: We’ve seen requirement assessments of 176, 180, 200, and 225 bombers—but the real demand signal is likely closer to 300 bombers. The sooner someone can dial in a number, the sooner industry can get aligned to support it.

• The Merge’s Spicy Take: It’s become somewhat of a running joke in the beltway when you compare the narrative of the F-35 program and the B-21 program. 👇

   

They Said It
“Our penetrating force clearly needs to interact with CCAs.”

— Maj. Gen. Jason Armagost, commander of 8th Air Force, on B-21 bombers integrating with the fighter-centric Collaborative Combat Aircraft

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Knowledge Bombs

• The US announced $1B in new Ukraine aid

• The Air Force did its first separation flight test of the F-35’s SiAW (Stand-in Attack Weapon)—check out the picture of it released from an F-16)

• Shield AI and Palantir are partnering to integrate Hivemind autonomy into Palantir’s Gaia real-time intelligence and operational picture platform

• Palantir and Anduril are partnering to structure and disseminate defense data for AI training

• Anduril and OpenAI are partnering together to use AI models trained on Anduril’s data for counter-drone operations

• Northrop Grumman was tapped to modernize Marine Corps F/A-18 LITENING target pod data links (BE-CDL waveform)

• Ukraine is planning to build 30,000 deep strike drones next year (like these)

• Varda Space won a $48m contract to test military hypersonic payloads on its reentry vehicles (we interviewed CEO Delian on the show last year)

• Sierra Space signed agreements with Astral Materials and Space Forge to use its Dream Chaser vehicle to explore micro-gravity space-based semiconductor manufacturing

• Raytheon was awarded a $590m production contract for EA-18G NGJ-MB jamming pods

• South Korea fielded its new L-SAM air defense system (100-mile range, 150k ft altitude)

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ANSWER
President FDR requested Congress to declare war, and the Congress passed a declaration of war against Japan later that day. The US has officially declared war 11 times, spanning 5 military conflicts in its history; this was the 6th. Subsequent declarations 7 through 11 covered the War in Europe, meaning WWII was the last time Congress passed a war of declaration.