🔷 300 B-21 bombers?

300 Bombers

The Air Force is all-in on bomber modernization: a $250B investment into a 176-bomber fleet through the 2050s. The 100 B-21 Raider program is expected to cost $203B and will be augmented by 76 B-52Js, a program that’s expected to run $48B.

We already covered the B-52J extensively, so it’s fitting (and timely) to discuss the B-21 Raider program and 2 narratives you need to keep track of.

Backstory

Jump in the way-back machine: the B-21 started as the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) program, a fixed-price contract with a $550m cost target per plane set in 2010 dollars. That contract and date-cost connection are the direct result of the fallout of the defunct Next-Gen Bomber (NGB), a program started in 2006 with plans to field in 2018…but killed in 2009 due to spiraling costs, mission creep, and budget demands to support the Middle East.

Accordingly, it's been widely acknowledged (and applauded) that this tight cost-scope control is a key part of the B-21 program’s success.

So What

All of the B-21’s infrastructure and program finances were baselined for an 80-100 bomber buy—but how many the Air Force will buy is the question.

The Air Force’s talking point has been to buy “at least 100” for years, but a few months ago, it changed its tune and signaled very strongly that they are sticking with 100 with no need to decide for at least a decade.

The problem is that no one outside the Pentagon thinks that 100 is the right number.

The estimates vary depending on the assumptions, but there is a pretty compelling rationale for a ~300-bomber force, which is a big delta from the planned 176-bomber force (100 B-21s + 76 B-52Js).

Why ~300 bombers? Here’s a good breakdown, but when looking at force sizing constructs to meet the National Defense Strategy—then factoring in training, test, readiness, and attrition (peacetime and war)—the number looks like a ~300 bomber force.

We aren’t building BUFFs anymore, but we are building Raiders, which translates into a requirement for somewhere between 180 and 225 B-21s.

If you think that’s a lot, here are 2 points to ponder:

1. The US bomber force is the Allies’ bomber force. Only 3 nations have bombers: China, Russia, and the US.

2. The Air Force operated ~400 bombers leading up to Desert Storm in 1991, and no one batted an eye.

Say What?

Switching gears for a second: The Air Force has pumped the brakes on the NGAD (Next-Generation Air Dominance) 6th-gen fighter design, saying it wants to revisit the assumptions around the operating environment and missions it’s projected to perform (it’s intended to replace the F-22 Raptor).

That review should be done before the end of the year, but one of the things Northrop Grumman teased out during an investment call was the Air Force was also reconsidering how many B-21s it needs—a massive narrative change just 6 months after “we’re sticking to 100.”

The Air Force not only confirmed that but also revealed that they are looking at how the B-21 bomber could take on some of the roles originally envisioned for the NGAD fighter. However, the NGAD fighter review affects the NGAS next-gen tanker requirements, which may also impact follow-on Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) requirements. They are all intertwined, and the Air Force says they are all unaffordable without major changes.

Good News: The B-21’s range capacity makes it relatively immune to this tanker dynamic. Its range, payload, survivability, and open architecture make it an attractive asset to add mish to, but… we’ll have to wait and see how this assessment goes.

Now What

To recap, there are 2 B-21 narratives in play that are easy to confuse.

1. 100 B-21s are not enough to fill the traditional bomber role. As defense analyst Christopher Bowie puts it: “No matter how capable an aircraft, it can only be in one place at one time.” See the F-22 Raptor lessons learned (750 planned, 195 built).

2. More mish means more iron. Expanding the B-21’s capabilities to become a multi-role bomber will increase its demand signal dramatically. This is an additional increase in B-21s, meaning there is a world where the Air Force buys 300+ B-21 multi-role platforms.

Committing to more B-21s now is the easiest and most important thing the Air Force can do. The B-21 program was designed for limited production rates—not scale. It’ll take a few years to expand the production capacity to support what could be a 50-300% increase in bombers built.

By the time the tooling and facilities have expanded to support production capacity (#1), it’ll be time for the contracts, tech, and supplier base to enable the capability expansion to meet the emerging roles (#2).

The sequence is important. Trying to do too much at once leads to escalating costs, potential delays, and integration challenges—all of the things the B-21 program was deliberately structured to avoid when it was created in 2010.

More B-21s are at the top of U.S. Strategic Command’s Xmas list—maybe 2024 is the year they don’t get coal.

In That Number

170

The Army has racked up 170 combat kills with Raytheon’s Coyote counter-drone interceptors to date.

TRIVIA

On this day in 1957, the Soviet Union shot a dog named Laika into space aboard the satellite Sputnik 2, making her the first living creature in orbit (though it was a one-way mission). How was Laika chosen for the mission?

A) Her owner was a lead engineer on the mission
B) She was the healthiest dog from a prestigious breeding program
C) She was a stray dog selected for her small size and calm temperament

On the Radar

Replicator updates. ICYMI, Replicator is a Pentagon initiative to rapidly develop and deploy thousands of low-cost autonomous systems across all domains to counter China's numerical advantage by August 2025.

• Replicator Tranche 1: Focused on offense, the first systems of this $1B effort are in theater, and US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) is set to begin testing in the next 3 months.

• Replicator Tranche 2: Focused on defense, this is all about counter-drone tech to plug holes in current plans and programs. The idea is to defend and protect key bases and force concentration from small drones akin to the ones being used in Ukraine. Meanwhile, policy limits these tools for CONUS use, where hundreds of drone incursions over US military bases have occurred in the past few years, some very blatant and threatening.

The Marine Corps autonomous helicopter competition is heating up. ICYMI, the Aerial Logistics Connector (ALC) program is competing versions of existing utility helicopters for unmanned cargo duties. Airbus is competing with an unmanned nose-loading UH-72 helo against an unmanned AW139, supported by a Honeywell, Near Earth Autonomy, and Leonardo team.

• The Merge’s Take: The 20-month rapid prototype program is only a couple of months old, but Airbus already recently completed its first test flight. Expect more news about Marine Corps cargo drones in the coming months, though not from this. The smaller version of this program is well underway. Called Medium Aerial Resupply Vehicle – Expeditionary Logistics (MARV-EL), Kaman and Elroy Air are competing on that and have already completed the flight evaluation.

6th-gen fighter updates from around the globe. GCAP’s 6th-gen fighter program is speeding up, with  Japan, the UK, and Italy agreeing to accelerate development to field by 2035. Meanwhile, the Franco-German FCAS is still being defined, but the teams are meeting to hammer out details.  

• The Merge’s Take: 2035 sounds far away, but considering the GCAP program doesn’t even have requirements and the first contract work won’t start until 2025—it's an ambitious but realistic target. There is a chance this three-nation consortium can somehow work together to field a new aircraft before the US Air Force’s NGAD fighter, which is currently paused pending a bottom-up review (which you know because you read the B-21 feature 😉). Meanwhile, FCAS might be real in 2040 if they can figure out what they’re doing.

If you’re looking for CCA updates, we have one—from Japan. Mitsubishi showed off 2 collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) concepts at a recent trade show.

• The Merge’s Take: In case you think this is PowerPoint, MHI is under contract to build at least 1 variant, with plans to flight test in 2025. Could Japan beat the US Air Force to market with a CCA? Maybe. Bonus points for producing a marketing video of the CCA in an engagement that’s shooting down Chinese J-20s.

The space-based radar imagery segment is getting spicy. The US recently drafted export rule easements but got immediate pushback from industry. The issue stems from the frequency—the rule only applies to 500 MHz and below, where no commercial company operates anymore. The problem to be solved is that US companies like Capella Space, Umbra, and Maxar operate at a disadvantage to foreign offerings from companies like Finland’s ICEYE due to export controls.

• The Merge’s Spicy Take: OK, it’s not our spicy take, but it's too good not to share. ICEYE released their first 25cm image this week (1,200 MHz), and Umbra VP Joe Morrison seized the opportunity to call out their restrictive use policy by offering some of Umbra’s 1,200 MHz imagery along with instructions on how to download ICEYE’s imagery to compare. We can’t post them side-by-side due to ICEYE’s legal restrictions, but you can see ICEYE here and Umbra here.  

They Said It
“have no idea what Xi Jinping will do in 2027, but I am pretty sure that his military will tell him they’re ready, and we’ll be in a period of much greater risk.”

—Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall 

Knowledge Bombs

• Universal Stainless's poor quality control led to the failed gears that caused the 2023 fatal CV-22 Osprey crash (they are a key aviation supplier; Boeing is a major customer)

• A mysterious drone was filmed over Lebanon, sparking speculation it’s Israel’s secretive RA-01 stealth drone

• dMetrics was awarded a $99m Pentagon contract for its AI platform that scours open-source data for adversarial connections

• The Pentagon’s contract ceiling for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet services was raised to $13 billion to meet rising demand (this 10X increase is a clear market signal)

• Ukraine confirmed it’s on track to have procured 1.8 million drones by 2025

• Shield AI flew its V-BAT ISR drone in Ukraine through Russian jamming and was used to call in a strike on an SA-11 SAM

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ANSWER
C. The Soviets collected stray dogs off the streets of Moscow. Laika was chosen for her sex, size, and temperament in dealing with loud noises and confined spaces.