Tower 22

January 28^th, 2024. A small US outpost in the desert along the Jordan-Syria border called Tower 22 was attacked by a drone from an Iranian-backed militia group. At least 34 Americans were injured—3 troops died. As I write this, the US is conducting retaliatory strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria.

You’ve likely heard all of this from news outlets. Talking heads and ‘experts’ on social media have spared no time with opinions and play-by-play speculation. For professionals in national security, there is another story.

After generations of putting US troops in harm’s way across the globe, this small yet tragic event marked the first time in 70 years an American ground troop was killed by an aerial attack. Over 5 million US ground troops participated in operations in Vietnam, Panama, Grenada, Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria—zero were ever killed by an aerial attack.

Until January 28th, 2024. Let that sink in.

Bedcheck Charlie

Rewind 70 years, 9 months, and 14 days—back to the last time this happened.

On April 15th, 1953, a US Army position on Cho-do Island just off the North Korean coast was attacked, killing 2 troops and wounding 22 more. The mechanism of attack is the key lesson.

High-tech jet fighters, radar surveillance, radar-aimed air defenses, and robust electronic intelligence collection were no match…for a low-tech biplane built in the 1920s.

The Russian Po-2’s wood and fabric construction made it difficult to detect by radar, and nearly impossible to find when flying in the ground clutter at treetop altitudes. Even if detected, its 70 mph cruise speed proved too slow for jets to intercept (resulting in the only bi-plane with a jet-kill in history). Making things more difficult, the Po-2 attacked exclusively at night, often from a glide with their engine off.

These were the same equipment and tactics the all-female “Night Witches” used in World War II. In the Korean War, these attacks focused on troop tents and were so pervasive they were known as ‘Bedcheck Charlie.’

The Lesson

There are a few lessons to take from these two events.

The first is that high-tech doesn’t win and low-tech doesn’t lose—it’s all about the ‘right-tech.’

The second: As those in the profession of arms know, every technology and tactic has an offset—an asymmetry waiting to be found and exploited. Failing to continually evolve and adapt cedes time and advantage to be offset by others—a position of failure.

This is an infinite game. It has no end and doesn’t neatly fit into fiscal years, POM cycles, programs of record, or a line of congressional language in a bill.

Innovate or die is a common mantra in the startup world—in national security, it is literally the way of life.

In the case of Tower 22, this failure is a tragedy. The threat of low-cost drone attacks has been acknowledged and admired by the Pentagon for almost 20 years, but failure to field solutions has broken a streak that lasted 70 years, 9 months, and 14 days.

The question now: Will Congress and the Pentagon finally learn the right lessons from this tragedy?

—Mike B

In That Number

60%

US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) jumped nearly 56 percent in 2023 over the previous year, hitting a record $80.9B

TRIVIA

On this day in 1944, President Roosevelt authorized the Bronze Star Medal (retroactive to December 7^th, 1941). Why was this medal created?

A) To preserve the sanctity of the Silver Star Medal
B) To counter the morale-destroying effect of the Air Medal
C) To expand the eligibility of medals for enlisted troops

On the Radar

South Korea promotes joint development of a 6th-gen fighter with Saudi Arabia.

• The Merge’s Take: This has minimal reporting, so we wouldn’t place too much stock into this—yet. That said, it is well-known that Saudi Arabia is looking for a date to take to the 6th-gen dance. The oil-rich nation is trying to get into the 6th-gen GCAP program led by a UK-Italy-Japan consortium. The real thing to keep an eye on: If Saudi joins a 6th-gen program, by law, it forces the US into a discussion about Israel’s 6th-gen fighter future.

Lockheed Martin Ventures announced an investment in Meteomatics, a weather tech startup.

• The Merge’s Take: Who said weather can’t be cool? Meteomatics uses weather drones to feed a larger dataset to operate one of the highest resolution weather models around—it forecasts weather street by street, updated every hour. If you’re wondering what Lockheed Ventures is—we interviewed the vice president running it back in episode 11 of our podcast.

DIU’s latest program is looking for kamikaze AI drone boats ready for rapid production.

• The Merge’s Take: The announcement doesn’t explicitly say ‘Replicator,’ but this sounds exactly like one of the first tranches of capabilities in this Pentagon initiative. Assuming that, DIU is trying to field hundreds of drone boats in the next 18 months. It’s also eerily similar to the drone boats Ukraine has been using to sink Russian ships.

M-Code GPS is delayed…again. The latest plan forecasts the capability to be online no sooner than July 2025.

• The Merge’s Take: The satellites are all in orbit, ready to go. The delay is the ground station to use all the new tech sitting in space. The Operational Control Segment (OCX) program contract was awarded in 2010 with a plan to field in 2016. Those aren’t typos.

The Missile Defense Agency approved Northrop Grumman’s preliminary design review of its proposed Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) a year ahead of schedule. The other competitor is Lockheed Martin, who completed their PDR 3 months ago.

• The Merge’s Take: Not one—but two—contractors on the same defense program are both 1 year ahead of schedule. Oh, you thought we only report bad news….

They Said It
“Robotics and autonomous systems are today what tanks, aircraft carriers, and fighter planes were in the 1930s.”

— Brigadier Ian Langford, comparing the point on the adoption curve of today’s tech to previous generations

Knowledge Bombs

• The Czech Republic signed a $6.6B deal to buy 24 F-35s (deliveries start in 2031)

• Turkey was approved to get F-16s

• Greece was approved for a $8.6B deal that includes 40 F-35s

• Ukraine is getting Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDBs), a Boeing-Saab project that bolts the GBU-39 glide bomb on top a rocket motor to achieve a 90-mile strike range

• General Atomics demoed an MQ-20 drone employing a new air launched effect drone (pics)

• Advanced Aircraft Company (AAC) received follow-on AFWERX contract to mature its hybrid multi-rotor VTOL drone

• The Air Force is adding auto GCAS to the T-7A jet trainer (it wasn’t a requirement already?!?)

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ANSWER
B. The Air Medal was created to boost the morale of flying units but inadvertently began destroying the morale of ground units. An army colonel proposed an equivalent, originally called “the Ground Medal,” which was renamed the Bronze Star and forwarded to President Roosevelt for approval.