🔷 MQ-Next

In That Number

10,000

The Pentagon aims to buy 10,000 Low-Cost Containerized Missiles (LCCM) from 4 defense firms: Anduril, CoAspire, Leidos, and Zone 5. The first munitions should arrive in 2027.

Note: this Army program is leveraging ground-launched variants of the Air Force’s air-launched low-cost cruise missile program (see below).

On the Radar

MQ-Next. The Air Force has officially cleared the requirements document for a next-generation UAS to replace the MQ-9A Reaper. While most details were not shared, the service did indicate it's looking for something with open systems, easily producible, and more attritable (read: lower cost).

• The Merge’s Take: The Reaper’s reign as the workhorse is incredible: 25+ years, 2 million+ hours, and 85%+ mission capable rates. The Air Force has been looking at “MQ-Next” since 2020, but it will be quite a feat to engineer a replacement that can perform all MQ-9 missions with that reliability and do it much cheaper. An MQ-9 runs ~$30M, depending on the config, so going to something cheaper probably means something smaller. Keep an eye on payload and endurance for this MQ-Next program as details emerge.

More B-21s. Next year, the Air Force is revising its B-21 Raider fleet goal, moving well beyond the legacy "minimum of 100" requirement.

• The Merge’s Take: As we wrote before, there are scenarios where 300+ B-21 bombers make sense. That said, the number is likely to be around 145, a figure several senior leaders have cited in recent months and close to the original 132-bomber goal the B-2 Spirit program had. Current B-21 production capacity is estimated at 6-7 bombers a year, and more bombers mean expanded production. Last year, the Air Force committed $4.5B to expand production by 25%...but what is on the horizon is likely a 50%+ expansion. Based on recent comments, expect Northrop Grumman to foot the expansion bill to secure a larger, longer production backlog.

Next Gen Airlift. The Air Force is requesting funds to assess options to replace the C-5 Galaxy and C-17 Globemaster fleets. The FY2027 budget requests $8.9M for the Next-Generation Airlift (NGAL) Analysis of Alternatives, aiming for a replacement to enter production as early as 2038, replacing all 275 C-5 and C-17 aircraft. To support that timeline, the C-5 fleet was extended to 2050.

• The Merge’s Take: NGAL’s size, scope, and impact on the U.S. aerospace sector make this one to watch. Given wins and losses across other defense aircraft programs, expect Lockheed Martin to assemble an all-star team to win NGAL… and there is a non-zero chance we’ll see a Lockheed-Boeing partnership. Recall that the C-5 and C-17 were built by Lockheed and Boeing, respectively. Place your bets! Meanwhile, don’t expect to see any relief in sight for the G-5’s abysmal 37% readiness rate, especially now that its service life is being stretched to 60 years.

Dragon Cart. The Air Force transitioned the Rapid Dragon experiment into a Program of Record (PoR) via Middle Tier Acquisition (MTA). Now titled Dragon Cart, the system enables C-130 and C-17 aircraft to launch "pallets" of standoff munitions. The original concept used high-end JASSM cruise missiles, but has grown to include low-cost cruise missiles like FAMM-P and the forthcoming longer-range FAM-BAR anti-ship cruise missile.

• The Merge’s Take: The limiting factor won’t be missiles or Dragon Carts—it will be cargo aircraft. On the surface, it makes sense: cargo aircraft have long legs and can carry lots of stuff. But dig a bit deeper, and you’ll see a tug-of-war between logistics and offense over the same aircraft. In the end, Rapid Dragon is less about mass and more about creating options, planting seeds of obfuscation, and creating multiple dilemmas for an adversary. We’re glad to see it get across the valley of death from the lab to the field.

TRIVIA

Which of the Golden Girls served in the U.S. Marine Corps Women's Reserve during WWII?

A) Estelle Getty
B) Bea Arthur 
C) Rue McClanahan 
D) Betty White

ICYMI: Episode Archive

We have the untold origin story about the Fury unmanned fighter jet!

We talk with the people who created it, what led them to sell their company to Anduril, and how that experience led them to create an investment fund called the DoD Accelerator to help other companies with what they lived through.

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They Said It

“What we also try to do is not be chasing the shiny object. And things are always going to look better on PowerPoint than they do when we prototype it.”

— Jay Dryer, Director of the Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO)

Knowledge Bombs

• Leidos won a $2.7B Army contract for hypersonic weapons production

• Anduril raised a $5B Series H at a $61B valuation

• Havoc raised a $100M Series A for all-domain collaborative autonomy

• Heaviside emerged from stealth with a $28M Series A for low-cost munitions

• SOCOM tapped SkyFi to test a satellite imagery-to-tablet prototype

• Shield AI & Thunder Tiger partnered on autonomous maritime vessels in Taiwan

• L3Harris turned handheld radios into counter-drone jammers

• AEVEX recieved an $18M Air Force contract for Group 3 OWA drones

• Elbit Systems received a $34M contract to extend the F-35I’s range

• Applied Intuition was tapped for an autonomy pipeline for the Pentagon

• The US' new AIM-260 air-to-air missile was seen publicly for the first time

• Saronic & Castelion partnered to integrate hypersonics on maritime USVs

• DZYNE Technologies unveiled Blitz, an expendable Group 1 drone system

• Lockheed Martin tested its QuadStar seeker for the Army's interceptor competition

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ANSWER
A) Bea Arthur. Long before her acting career, Bea Arthur, then known as Bernice Frankel, enlisted in the Marine Corps in 1943. She worked as a driver and dispatcher and was promoted to staff sergeant before being discharged in 1945.