🔷 Very Low Space

Very Low Earth Orbit
(VLEO)

Just when you thought space couldn’t get any more crowded, a new orbital segment is gaining market traction.

What

Most of the satellites in orbit today are in LEO (low, like Starlink at ~340 miles), MEO (medium, like GPS at ~12,500 miles), and GEO (geostationary, like SATCOM at ~22,200 miles).

Below all of that is the new kid on the block: Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO). This orbital altitude is below 250 miles, mainly in the 150-200-mile band.

So What

A satellite in VLEO is flying at half the altitude of LEO, bringing the payload twice as close to the action on the ground. This has obvious benefits, like improved sensor performance and reduced latency.

But there are reasons why VLEO hasn’t been packed with satellites to date.

VLEO lives at the intersection between aerodynamics and orbital mechanics—planes can’t fly there, and satellites don’t like to stay there.

VLEO satellites also endure unique environmental stress and require advanced propulsion tech like frequent bursts or continuous electronic propulsion to counteract the atmospheric drag and higher gravitational forces.

Phase Four and Redwire won DARPA contracts to develop air-breathing electric propulsion for VLEO satellites that harvest ambient low-density air as fuel, which sure sounds DARPA hard to us.

But the tradeoffs appear to be worth it.

The cost to operate a VLEO constellation could be completely different than LEO. VLEO is easier to access, requiring smaller launchers (think aircraft and small rockets).

Also, because payloads won’t stay there long, they can leverage commercially available cameras and sensors that don’t require large optics or radiation hardening. Think half the cost but twice the resolution—aerial quality image from space for anywhere on Earth, available within 15 minutes of tasking.

Finally, VLEO orbits are low enough that they are essentially self-cleaning when a satellite’s propulsion runs out, solving the significant problem of space debris.

Oh What

Even without advanced propulsion to keep a satellite in VLEO, the cost dynamics are creating a new value proposition: on-demand theater-centric expendable constellations.

Imagine a rapid response launch for a small constellation that could be in orbit in 3 days and remain in orbit for 3 months, with coverage optimized for a specific region. These can used for imagery, sensing, communication, and even an on-demand GPS alternative for contingencies.

Players

The VLEO market is new today—with roughly a dozen launches in 2024—but that’s expected to total 600+ by 2030. This new market brings a set of new startups.

American startups Skeyeon, Earth Observant, and Albedo have raised money for VLEO satellite plans. Other companies like Redwire have multiple VLEO projects and various partnerships. Another effort to watch is a Dutch-Austrian project to build a satellite that can travel in both LEO and VLEO.

Of course, China’s also in the game—they are building a 300-satellite VLEO constellation to be in service by 2030.

With that in mind, also keep an eye on who’s keeping an eye on VLEO—this is another emerging tech sector.

Dawn Aerospace is building a suborbital rocket plane to deploy VLEO payloads, and they’ve recently teamed with Scout Space to fly into VLEO to track and monitor satellites. Back on Earth, LeoLabs recently won an Air Force contract to demo a ground-based radar that tracks objects in VLEO.

Set for Liftoff

As militaries focus on space-based domain awareness and the cost to launch continues to plummet, low-cost disposable VLEO satellites could redefine the access, quality, and latency of surveillance and reconnaissance in the coming years.

In That Number

200 Percent

Iran plans to increase its defense budget 200 percent

TRIVIA

The 1960s Corona program was the first US reconnaissance satellite program and the first to use VLEO. How did the imagery get back to Earth?

A) Digital transmission via radio signals
B) Jettisoned film capsules recovered mid-air
C) Laser transmission to ground stations
D) Real-time video downlinks

On the Radar

Replicator 1.2. The plan to rapidly field thousands of drones to deter China now has Replicator 1.2—initiative 1, tranche 2. This new tranche adds Anduril’s Ghost-X and PDW’s C-100 small drones (Army), Anduril’s Altius-600 loitering munition (Marine Corps), and the cheap cruise missile program known as Enterprise Test Vehicle (Air Force, still in the competitive stage with 4 companies).

• The Merge’s Take: We’re not sure how a drone with an 8-mile range deters China, but the $100k cruise missile seems like a no-brainer. We say kill the drones and give all the money to ETV to fund all 4 companies to production at scale.

The Army is building a TNT factory. REPKON USA-Defense was awarded a $425m contract to build a TNT factory in Kentucky to support the surging demand for 155mm artillery production. Each shell contains 22 pounds of explosives, and the Army is trying to scale production to 100,000 shells per month, which translates to 26 million pounds of explosives required annually. #math

• The Merge’s Take: As part of the post-Cold War defense draw-down, the Army off-shored TNT production and has been importing almost all of its TNT ever since. That sounds even crazier when you read it aloud. This plant will be operational in 2029, so no help for the current demand.

The Mitchell Institute hosted the inaugural Airpower Futures Forum to talk about airpower and considerations for the Air Force’s new force design. The plan is classified, so few details were shared, but it is said to be ‘fiscally informed.’

• The Merge’s Take: We were there and even on a panel (thanks to our friends at Mitchell). Several attempts have been made to revamp the force design over the past decade, but it was unclear what would make this one stick. There was a case for needing more Air Force, but it was somewhat walked back during the Q&A when leaders tried to dissociate ‘more force’ from actual more force—mass. It got us thinking, so stay tuned for a topic on this. Oh, and there was this epic quote about the CCA program.

China inked a deal to buy Russian Su-57 Felons, the fighter’s first export deal. Meanwhile, India remains on the fence for Su-57s, even though it was an early partner (until 2018) and had contributed $250m towards its development.

• The Merge’s Take: Imagine if China takes the Su-57, reverse-engineers it, then produces an indigenous version (J-57?). That’s exactly what they did with the Su-27, which became the J-11. In fact, Russia’s defense industry estimates China has had 500+ reverse-engineering programs over the past 2 decades. Play stupid games; win stupid prizes.

Air Force CCA updates:

• CDR: The 2 Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) Increment 1 designs—from Anduril and General Atomics—have both passed critical design reviews

• Increment 1 is being cost and scope-controlled by a “enough is good enough” philosophy

• Test Fleet: The Air Force is upping its buy of Increment 1 CCAs to equip its experimental operations unit (EOU)

• Increment 2 is under analysis now, with concept refinement starting early next year

US intel wildly underestimated Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia. To address this, the Defense Intelligence Agency has now developed a methodology to capture the missing element: ‘will to fight’ analysis.

• The Merge’s Spicy Take: The DIA existed for 60+ years and never considered a nation’s will to fight in their analysis? This meme summarizes the sentiment perfectly.

They Said It
“A US destroyer on Polish soil has become a fact.”

—Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on the opening of ‘Aegis Ashore.’

The long-awaited land-based missile defense system derived from the US Navy’s Aegis Weapon System 

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Knowledge Bombs

• Northrop Grumman’s B-21 bomber price is decreasing—not increasing—over $5B in the first five lots (that’s a ‘B,’ a whopping 28% decrease)

• AeroVironment’s Switchblade 600 loitering munition destroyed a Russian SA-15 SAM in Ukraine (video)

• General Atomics and BAE Systems flight-tested a new jam-resistant Link 16 datalink on the MQ-20 Avenger

• Merlin was approved to start flight-testing its autonomy on Air Force KC-135 tankers

• Raytheon was tapped to build a power-beaming solution for the US Army

• Northrop Grumman won a $541m MDA contract for a hypersonic interceptor, and then Raytheon filed a lawsuit in protest

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ANSWER
B. The satellites discharged a film capsule that re-entered the atmosphere, dropped the heat shield, deployed a parachute, and would be grabbed mid-air by a passing airplane. The Cold War was wild!