🔷 Stingray

MQ-25 Stingray

Last week, the Navy and Boeing completed the first test flight of a production MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone.

The MQ-25 is capable of carrying up to 15,000 pounds of fuel at 500 nautical miles to refuel 4-6 fighters. The goal is threefold:

1. Aerial Refueling Support (ARS) to carrier air wings at sea, freeing F/A-18 Super Hornets from the support “buddy tanker” missions

2. Range extension of carrier aviation without relying on the Air Force

3. Entry point for integrating unmanned aviation on the aircraft carrier, like collaborative combat aircraft (CCA)

Here are the program details:

• Total Aircraft: 76 planned (67 operational + 4 Engineering Development Models (EDM) + 5 System Demonstration Test Articles (SDTA))

• Total Cost: $15.9B

• Flyaway Cost: $181M each

That’s not a typo; they really are 2X the cost of an F-35 fighter.

If you are thinking that the MQ-25 already flew and aerial refueled, you’re not crazy. Boeing flew the T-1 prototype in parallel with the program timeline to inform the production aircraft.

Fixed Price 

The MQ-25 is one of Boeing’s stable of fixed-price programs that have struggled (KC-46, T-7, and VC-25B).

In 2018, Boeing was awarded an $805M contract for the first 4 EDM aircraft. EDM-3 was the first flight aircraft that made headlines last week.

Despite the high-dollar contract, Boeing has lost roughly $700M on the MQ-25 to date, and the program is significantly behind schedule.

The original 2024 fielding shifted a couple of times, and the latest change last week is now projecting 2029. Here’s how the timeline looks:

Carrier Ops

Flying from an airfield is one thing, but launching and recovering on a carrier is next-level difficulty. Beyond that, the MQ-25 is designed to autonomously taxi, take off, maneuver, and land—and it’s 75-foot wingspan folds for carrier deck operations.

The completion of carrier qualification trials next year will ultimately determine the timeline and success of getting the MQ-25 underway with the fleet in 2029.

The MQ-25 has a 44,000 lb max takeoff weight and a 10,000 lbf thrust engine, which is about the thrust-to-weight ratio of an E-2D Hawkeye.

We can’t wait to see the max-fueled carrier cat shot test videos…

In That Number

28,000

The Air Force plans to invest $12.6B over the next 5 years to buy a whopping 28,000 cheap cruise missiles units under its Family of Affordable Mass Munitions (FAMM) program.

TRIVIA

Which major fast-food chain's first drive-thru was created in 1975 to specifically accommodate US soldiers whose uniform regulations prevented them from entering the restaurant?

A) Burger King
B) Wendy's
C) In-N-Out Burger
D) McDonald's

On the Radar

Fixed Price. The White House issued an executive order to make fixed-price contracting the default for all contracts. Exemptions have to be justified in writing, and the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) will be updated in the coming months.

• The Merge’s Take: This contracting preference will pair well with the existing commercial preference policy. Unlike previous fixed-price preference attempts, this one is likely to stick due to the layers of accountability, continual reporting, and FAR amending.

MARV-EL Sequel. The Marine Corps tapped 2 teams for its MARV-EL Inc 2 (Medium Aerial Resupply Vehicle – Expeditionary Logistics) autonomous helicopter program. Sikorsky-Robinson (R66 with Sikorsky autonomy) is competing against Near Earth Autonomy with Bell Textron’s 505 Jet Ranger.

• The Merge’s Take: The first attempt at MARV-EL evaluated Kaman Aerospace’s Kargo (acquired by Piasecki) and Leidos/Elroy Air’s Chaparral with a 600 lb. cargo, 25-mile requirement—neither was deemed suitable. The new requirement is 2,500 pounds and a 100-mile combat radius, but the real pivot is that both competitors are using proven commercial aircraft with well-established supply chains. It will be interesting to see how MARV-EL Inc 2’s R66 and Bell 505 evolve alongside the Marines’ bigger autonomous helo program called Aerial Logistics Connector (ALC) — which Near Earth Autonomy (w/ Leonardo AW139) is competing against an Airbus-Shield AI team (w/ UH-72). ALC should have an operational demo next year.

SOCOM Swaps Crop-Dusters for Swarms. U.S. Special Operations Command is scaling back its OA-1K Skyraider II procurement again, from the originally planned 75 aircraft to 62 last year and now to 53. The 2027 budget request proposes buying only 2 of the militarized crop-dusters….and tripling its MQ-9 Reaper budget to $75M. Of that, $48M would fund the Adaptive Airborne Enterprise (A2E), an initiative that transforms the Reaper into a "mothership" capable of launching and controlling other drones.

• The Merge’s Take: The budget calls for buying 100+ Group 2 air-launched drones (like the Anduril Altius-600), but also more special Group 3 air-launched drones. The budget out-years tells an even bigger story: more than $50M is going into the MQ-9 program every year from 2028 through 2031. It will be interesting to see what this “signature managed” Group 3 drone is, though we have some ideas…

Kyiv’s 50,000-Robot Ground Surge. Ukraine is fielding 50,000 Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) units this year to automate high-risk frontline roles. This plan leverages domestic platforms like the Zmiy Droid 12.7 for logistics, casualty evacuation, and machine-gun fire support. 

• The Merge’s Take: Ukraine is rapidly moving the "Army of Drones" playbook from the sky to the mud. Like the FPV drone playbook, keep an eye on the rugged simplicity and rapid iteration of UGVs throughout the year. One example from a few months ago, the Zmiy Droid 12.7 held a firing position for 45 consecutive days with minimal maintenance.

They Said It

“We’ve got the floodgates about to open and apply to those priorities.” 

— Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, on spending the "One Big Beautiful Bill" funds that were appropriated 10 months ago. Only $26B of the $152B has been placed on contract so far.

Dcode the Pentagon Buying Machine

Mike sits down with the Dcode co-founders Meagan Metzger and Meg Vorland to unpack the reality behind defense innovation, acquisition reform, and the flow of capital into the sector.

Dcode operates at a unique intersection—working with startups, investors, and the Pentagon—giving them a rare, inside-out view of how the system really works.

This is the inside baseball, and though it’s a bit nerdy, we keep it lively—hold our beer!

Check it out!

YouTube

Apple

Spotify

Knowledge Bombs

• Scout AI raised a $100M Series A for physical AI for defense

• Pyka completed the first flight of its DropShip autonomous cargo aircraft

• Lockheed Martin invested $25M in Fortem Technologies for counter-UAS systems

• True Anomaly raised a $650M Series D for orbital space warfare

• SkyfireAI raised a $11M Seed fund for autonomous drone operations

• The Pentagon cleared 8 companies to deploy AI on classified networks

• The Netherlands is buying two CCAs in a partnership with the US Air Force

• Baykar unveiled the MIZRAK kamikaze drone with a 1,000km strike range

• Anduril released footage of its Copperhead-500M underwater weapon

• Ursa Major’s Hadley liquid rocket engine completed 10 hypersonic flights

• 5 companies were named as preferred munitions providers for the Pentagon’s Drone Dominance Program

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ANSWER D) McDonald's. The first McDonald's drive-thru was added in 1975 near Fort Huachuca to after Army uniform regulations prohibited soldiers from entering the store and sales declined. After the drive-thru, sales jumped 40%.