🔷 Project Eagle

In That Number

150…14%…3-8

The Army reportedly fired over 150 THAAD ballistic missile interceptors during the June conflict between Iran and Israel, representing roughly 14% of its entire THAAD missile stockpile.

It’s estimated to take 3 to 8 years to replenish this expenditure—and they cost $15M each.

On the Radar

Project Eagle drone interceptors. The company formerly known as White Stork has developed and deployed a new low-cost AI interceptor drone in Ukraine that was purpose-built to blunt Russia’s Shahed-136 attacks.

• The Merge’s Take: Project Eagle has moved silently but swiftly. Founded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt after Russia’s 2022 invasion, the startup avoids press, so this story is worth highlighting. Our intel indicates they have a significant footprint inside Ukraine built on a track record of success with various drone products, marking a unique blend of stealth-mode startup, innovation, philanthropy, and geopolitics. FYI: White Stork was renamed to Project Eagle to avoid confusion with a humanitarian charity of the same name.

The MQ-25 Stingray took 2 steps forward, but 1 step back. Ground testing of the tanker drone is underway for the pre-production version’s first flight, and the first production MQ-25s were included in the FY26 budget request (3 for $160M each). However, compounding issues have slipped the planned initial operational capability (IOC) date another year to 2027 (original IOC was 2024). Reminder that Boeing was declared the winner in 2018, and the $16.5B program plan is to procure 76 MQ-25s (69 production variants).

• The Merge’s Take: Given that the funding request for the first production MQ-25s is just now in Congress for approval, and the timeline from funding appropriation to contract award to delivery, the only way this program hits IOC in 2027 is with premature decision making: going into production without developmental testing and pushing it operational with a skinny definition of IOC (3 MQ-25s), and doing it before completing mandated operational testing. That’s precisely what the program is doing, but even then, we’re not convinced it will be operational in 2027, let alone ready for a carrier deployment before 2029.

HH-60Ws for VIPs. The 2026 budget redirects 26 HH-60Ws to replace aging UH-1 Hueys for VIP missions, canceling earlier plans to leverage the MH-139 buy to cover the mission.

• The Merge’s Take: In a cross-over episode we predicted a year ago, the HH-60 CSAR helo saga has now officially entered the MH-139 nuke helo saga. Bad news, though: the plan is not to buy more HH-60Ws, but rather to repurpose excess HH-60Ws that Congress had already allocated in previous budgets, which the Air Force did not want—the program is for 75 production CSAR helos, Congress plussed that up to 100, and this proposal would redirect 26 of those to the VIP mission.

T-45 life extensions. The Navy has inducted the first 2 T-45 Goshawk jet trainers into a Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) to keep them flying through 2036 amid rising obsolescence and costs.

• The Merge’s Take: The Navy established the SLEP line in just 13 months, an indicator of just how dire the fleet situation has gotten. That said, it may also influence the narratives for those competing in the T-45 replacement program—the Undergraduate Jet Training System (UJTS). Textron unveiled the Beechcraft T-346N as a mature “ready now” solution, but the T-45 SLEP could minimize that narrative and help Boeing, which is expected to compete with the new T-7 (currently in development testing with the Air Force).

GPS jamming threatens satellites. Ground-based GPS jamming is so strong over Ukraine that it's impacting low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, disrupting timing and positioning over 1,200 miles above Earth.

• The Merge’s Take: While GPS alternatives have been rapidly growing for terrestrial PNT (position, navigation, timing), most LEO satellites in orbit rely on the GPS constellation. The extensive jamming of satellites in LEO in the Eastern Europe region highlights the need for an alternative PNT system for spacecraft.

TRIVIA

On August 3, 1958, the USS Nautilus—the world's first operational nuclear-powered submarine—made history by becoming the first submarine to do what?

A) Circumnavigate the Arctic Circle
B) Reach the North Pole
C) Cross the Pacific

They Said It

“I owe that back to the deputy secretary of defense in 60 days. So, in 60 days I’ll be able to talk in depth about, ‘Hey, this is our vision for what we want to get after for Golden Dome.’”

— Gen. Michael A. Guetlein, newly appointed head of the Golden Dome missile defense project, outlining his timeline for the ambitious homeland defense initiative.

The Golden Dome industry summit is this week.

Knowledge Bombs

• The Air Force is skipping a tanker competition and buying more KC-46s

• Northrop Grumman announced its tech partners for its new Beacon flying test bed project

• Italy secured a $300M deal to buy 2 EA-37B Compass Call aircraft

• Saab revised its FY25 projections following a 31.5% sales surge (Q2 climbed to $1.9B)

• Belgium is set to acquire 11 more F-35s to boost its planned 45-aircraft fleet

• Hadrian raised $260M to construct new AI-powered factories

• Turkey signed a $5.6B deal with the UK to buy 40 Eurofighter jets

• The Air Force tested new software that used AI to produce real-time recommendations for dynamic targeting

• Turkey unveiled its Tayfun Block-4 hypersonic missile (ground-launched with 500-mile range)

• The US and the UK are developing an F-35 collision avoidance system to maintain deconfliction between military and civilian aircraft

• France’s Archange electronic warfare biz jet made its first flight (modified Dassault Falcon 8X)

• The US announced a $4B loan guarantee for Poland to buy American military equipment

• Booz Allen Hamilton tripled its venture capital to $300M to bolster tech for US missions

• Roketsan (a Turkish company) unveiled a new missile launcher system hidden in shipping containers

• The Air Force is starting another low-cost cruise missile program called Lugged Affordable Cruise Missile (LACM)

• MGI Engineering unveiled its SkyShark kamikaze drone (with F1 aerodynamics)

• The Pentagon demoed BVLOS drone cargo flights for Project ULTRA

• Australia test-fired a Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) for the first time, a milestone on its path to a 25X increase in long-range fires capacity

• Rune Technologies closed a $24M Series A funding round for its military logistics software

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ANSWER B) The USS Nautilus reached the geographic North Pole on August 3, 1958, completing a daring underwater transit beneath the Arctic ice cap.