🔷 F-35 Fuel Tanks

On the Radar

F-35 fuel tanks. Years after plans for F-35 fuel drop tanks were shelved, the Air Force is again interested in external fuel tanks for the stealth fighter. The F-35 was designed and plumbed to carry external fuel tanks, and the idea has been studied, but the US never moved forward. Israel has been rumored to have developed F-35 drop tanks going back to 2021, and US officials confirmed they exist and were used to strike targets deep into Iran last month. These are likely 600-gallon variants, which Lockheed designed back in 2019 (the earlier, smaller 460-gallon design showed little utility). Bar napkin math shows this would give the F-35 a ~40% increase in combat radius. The Pentagon is currently being coy, stating they are looking at “all forms of external fuel tanks, to include under-wing tanks, for all three variants of the F-35.”

• The Merge’s Take: Buy the Israeli drop tanks, it’s done for US aircraft all the time. Israeli firm Cyclone (owned by Elbit) builds external fuel tanks and has been associated with this effort in the past, so it’s a known commodity. OBTW: Israel’s IAI builds most of the world’s F-15 and F-15 conformal fuel tanks, so maybe there is an F-35 CFT in the works? The Pentagon won’t say, but we say buy the drop tanks that exist today and keep exploring other options.

GEO satellites that move. The Space Force is developing satellites designed to maneuver unpredictably in geostationary orbit (GEO), turning them from sitting ducks into elusive targets. The effort is being led by the Space Rapid Capabilities Office (Space RCO).

• The Merge’s Take: Dynamic space operations and defensive maneuvers are going to change a ton of things. The era of GEO satellites lazily orbiting in fixed, very predictable slots 22,000 miles above Earth meant that it was relatively easy to deploy another lazy satellite into orbit with deconfliction. As they transform into cosmic chess pieces for survivability, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain space domain awareness, which is kind of the point for maneuvering satellites. But this sword cuts both ways for the US and its allies and adversaries for maintaining safe deconfliction. Keep an eye on the link between domain awareness and dynamic space operations.

GPS alternative on the rise. The Space Force is spearheading a new wave of GPS-alternative satellite constellations. Unlike GPS, which comprises 31 satellites in medium-Earth orbit (MEO), these are low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations comprising hundreds of small satellites. The difference is huge. Think low-cost satellites with 1000x stronger signals that are harder to spoof and jam, but at an expense: more complex ground control and constellation management systems.

• The Merge’s Take: The global market for assured Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) alternatives is expected to grow 8X in the next decade, so expect a wave of altPNT start-ups to hit the scene. Right now, the 2 to keep an eye on are TrustPoint and Xona, which are launching satellites now and plan to offer services by 2030. Don’t count out Iridium, which was doing LEO SATCOM before it was cool. A company called Satelles figured out how to turn Iridium’s LEO signal into a GPS alternative—and Iridium bought them last year—and it's offered as a service today. Unlike GPS, which is provided free by the US for the world to use, these are “PNT-as-a-service” business models so you’ll have to pay to use them.

Tanker plan pivots…again. The Air Force’s tanker replacement plan is changing course, requesting $23M to start the effort. The so-called “Tanker Production Extension” program will release an RFP next year and will use the KC-46 as a basis for affordability. The previous plan was the KC-X (KC-46), KC-Y (bridge tanker), and KC-Z—the Next Gen Air Refueling System (NGAS). The current KC-46 program is set to buy 179 tankers, but the Air Force recap plan calls for ~400 tankers—as many as 200 KC-135s currently have no replacement plan. Notably, the futuristic NGAS program is shifting to the right, with $13M allocated to continue exploring options. Relatedly or coincidentally, JetZero’s full-scale blended wing body (BWB) demonstrator—which was targeting NGAS—is getting a $14M budget cut from its condition-based $235M Air Force funding.

• The Merge’s Take: The easy button is just to buy more KC-46s, which the name of the new “production extension” plan alludes to. However, a homogeneous fleet of 400 767-based tankers doesn’t address any of the existing Indo-Pacific tanker pain points—namely, range, capacity, and first-island chain ops. A larger tanker like Lockheed’s KC-Y proposal (Airbus A330 MRTT variant with 50k more fuel than the KC-46) solves some of that but is even less ideal for austere operations.

• The Merge’s Spicy Take: This is yet another rebranding of the 20-year Boeing vs Airbus tanker buy. We say let the primes duke it out over the KC-46 vs MRTT, but slice off $$ to buy or lease 5 Embraer KC-390 tankers ASAP and experiment on how to integrate them into Agile Combat Employment (ACE) ops. The KC-390 is essentially a jet-powered C-130 tanker that costs half the price of the KC-46 and requires half the runway length. The Air Force will learn a ton, and if it doesn’t work out, those can be resold on the international market (it has 7 buyers, with another 7 interested).

In That Number

340

The Air Force is requesting to retire 340 aircraft next year, 258 which are fighter aircraft (including 162 A-10s). To replace them, the service plans to buy only 45 fighters—24 F-35s and 21 F-15EXs.

The Reconciliation Bill, signed before the holiday, tweaks those buy numbers a bit (like the $3.1B for more F-15EX), but it’s not enough to stem the continual shrinking of the Air Force.

TRIVIA

This weekend, the US celebrated the 4th of July as its Independence Day. But what really happened on July 4th, 1776?

A) The American Revolution began
B) The Continental Congress decided to declare independence
C) The Continental Congress approved the final wording of the Declaration of Independence
D) The Declaration of Independence was signed

They Said It

“I think the federal workforce is incredibly capable; we’ve just set up a system of rules that make it impossible for them to do their jobs.”

— Rep. Adam Smith, Ranking Member, House Armed Services Committee, emphasizing the hindrance of existing defense acquisitions rules and processes

Knowledge Bombs

• South Korea inked a $1.76B deal for 20 more KF-21 fighters (40 fighters delivered by 2028)

• Shield AI and RTX announced a partnership to develop a networked collaborative autonomous (NCA) weapon

• Castelion’s low-cost Blackbeard hypersonic missile is in development for the Army

• The Air Force has developed a small drone launch capability for its KC-135 tankers

• The Pentagon terminated the RDER program (Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve) to allocate resources toward other initiatives

• The Air Force demoed MUM-T with an F-15E and F-16 MUM-T, each controlling 2 XQ-58 Valkyrie drones in a tactical scenario

• MightyFly demoed its eVTOL cargo drone for the Air Force

• Sceye is fielding a high-altitude platform system (HAPS) for on-demand non-terrestrial connectivity that can stay airborne for up to a year

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ANSWER
C. The Continental Congress approved the final wording of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. The final version was signed on August 2nd, but to spread the word as quickly as possible, the approved document was printed ASAP. All of the copies have July 4th, 1776, at the top, mirroring the original handwritten copy approved that day.