🔷 China’s Tech Reveal(s)

China’s
Big Reveal(s)

The aviation internet blew up over the holidays with all kinds of news coming out of China.

On December 26, 2024, China unveiled 2 new advanced combat aircraft flying in broad daylight: Chengdu Aircraft Corporation's (CAC) J-36 (or JH-36) and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation's (SAC) J-50.

JH-36

The JH-36 caught the most news due to its design and greater online footprint: a tri-engine, tailless diamond design that is slightly larger than any fighter jet. Internet reactions ranged from impressiveness to dismissiveness (“Temu Dorito” was our favorite).

Visual assessments indicate it’s built for all-aspect stealth and long-range, high-speed missions—think 2-3X the range of a traditional fighter.

The internet continues to argue whether this is a “fighter” due to its purported lack of maneuverability, but professionals have labeled it a medium-range bomber, which is why we’re calling it the JH-36 (‘J’ for fighter and ‘H’ for bomber, similar to the US ‘FB’ designation, but in Chinese parlance).

It’s too soon to tell, but the 3-engine design and unusual intakes (2 on the bottom, 1 on top) could indicate a very high electrical power requirement as well as varying operating envelopes—think bottom intakes for maneuvering, the top intake for high-altitude high-speed transit.

The apertures on the sides (up by the nose and further back where the serial number is) indicate room for plenty of sensors or non-kinetic effectors.

Speaking of the serial number, 36011 may indicate it’s more of a prototype than a demonstrator—though it flew with its gear down the whole time, a common practice for early flight testing.

Here is a good technical assessment of the design, and here is a good assessment of the engines and designs based on readings from the designer of the JH-36.

Finally, the cockpit didn’t get the attention it deserves. The dark tint makes it impossible to tell, but RUMINT from Chinese social media is that it could support a 2-crew concept sitting side-by-side—à la a bomber crew.

J-50

The J-50 had much less coverage, though its design would’ve been breaking news itself had it not been overshadowed by the JH-36 fervor (the JH-36 also had more images and videos to analyze).

The J-50 has a tail-less design, but different than the JH-36. Chinese social media indicates the J-50 has an adjustable V-tail, permitting it to lay flat (tail-less) for all-aspect stealth or raise up for maneuverability. Here’s a rendering of what this adjustable V-tail might look like in action.

The tail matters since the J-50 is sized, shaped, and powered (2 engines) more like a fighter than the JH-36.

OBTW, a new video just surfaced that shows the rear of the J-50, and you can faintly make out the V-tail surfaces.

What Else

There were a number of other big reveals from China that you probably missed, all likely timed to try and coincide with December 26th, the birthday of Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China.

• Did you miss the first flight of the new KJ-3000 AEW&C aircraft? It’s a Y-20B-based early warning design from XAC (Xi’an Aircraft Corporation).

• Did you miss the first known images of the WZ-9 ISR drone? Its single-engine, single-wing, twin-boom fuselage design is unlike anything else flying right now. The twin-fuselage is designed to hold fuel and sensors.

• Did you miss the launch of the Sichuan, the first Type 076 amphibious assault ship? It’s huge, similar to US amphibious assault ships (Wasp class), but with 1 huge difference—it has an electromagnetic catapult to support carrier aviation. RUMINT is also designed to support a new class of naval drones.

More?!?

But wait, there’s more.

Did you miss the reveal of an updated FH-97A drone? This is China’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) that was first revealed in 2022. It entered accelerated development in 2023 to get it operational ASAP. It uses a rocket booster to launch without a runway but has a landing gear for recovery.

This is the third noticeable design update since 2022. The latest version moves the IRST aperture housing from the top to the bottom, just behind the nose cone.

Last but not least, there were 3 different hypersonic reveals.

• China tested its MD-19 near-space hypersonic craft by dropping it from both a high-altitude balloon and from another drone.

• China revealed it’s also flown a large aircraft prototype to Mach 6.5 for 20 minutes—and did it 4 years ago.

• China revealed a video of the first flight of its reusable space plane. The so-called Tengyun project uses a two-stage-to-orbit concept; the larger plane carries the smaller X-37-looking craft on top to the upper atmosphere for launch.

Final Thoughts

These reveals remove any remaining doubt that there is a technological race in defense aeronautics—and China is deadly serious about leading it.

In 2025, the FH-97A CCA is the one to keep an eye on. It’s on track to be operational before any US CCA effort, and there should soon be video released of it in flight testing in the coming months.

The FH-97A could be a Sputnik moment, in more ways than 1.

Did you know that back in the 1950s, the US could have beaten the Soviets to space and deployed the world’s first satellite? The US had the right people and the technical foundations but, unfortunately, did not leverage them because it didn’t think getting to space first mattered much. They were wrong.

With that in mind, in 2025 will the US commit to fielding the XQ-58 Valkyrie? Or will it remain in purgatory, where it’s been stuck for the past few years? The US Marine Corps has a real chance to beat the US Air Force—and China—to field the first operational CCA using one of the several Valkyrie variants.

MQ-58 has a nice ring to it.

In That Number

$3.8B

SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service revenue is projected to reach $11.8B in 2025— $3B of that coming from US government contracts.

TRIVIA

In 2024, FPV drone strikes in Ukraine dominated headlines, with online videos showcasing their impact. Yet, the first combat FPV drone strikes date back to 1944 with the TDR-1.

Which US military branch led the way?

A) Army
B) Army Air Forces
C) Marine Corps
D) Navy

On the Radar

Raytheon’s Block V Tomahawk missiles are now in full-rate production. The Navy awarded a $401m Navy contract for the first 131 Block V Tomahawk missiles.

• The Merge’s Take: If you thought these were for the US Navy, you’re wrong. 78 are for Japan, 11 are for Australia, and—wait for it—the remaining missiles are heading to the US Army (26) and US Marine Corps (16). It’s yet another sign of multi-domain concepts blurring traditional service-centric lines.

The Air Force’s next ejection seat is now a competition. The original plan was for Collins’ ACES 5 seat to replace its ACES II seats in the F-15, F-16, F-22, and B-1. The F-15 is going to proceed with ACES 5, but the F-16 and F-22 seats are being opened for competition for Martin Baker, the UK company that builds the ejection seat for the F-35.

• The Merge’s Take: This makes so much sense for the F-16; we only wonder why it wasn’t considered a year or 2 ago. Martin Baker’s US18E seat—based on the F-35’s US16E seat—is currently used in all Block 70 F-16s, which have a half dozen international customers totaling 130+ jets. So, the non-recurring engineering is done and paid for. The small US-only F-22 fleet is a different matter—this is the area of the competition to keep an eye on.

The Eurofighter is going to be around for a while. The partner consortium recently signed a modernization commitment to keep the jets flying and relevant into the 2060s. On the heels of that, Italy announced it’s buying 24 more Eurofighters and Spain committed to buying 25 more Eurofighters.

• The Merge’s Take: Expect this modernization to trigger more sales and tech reveals. Airbus recently unveiled its A320 testbed featuring an ECRS Mk.1 radar nose cone, the new AESA radar going on German and Spanish Eurofighters. Turkey and Saudi Arabia could be breakout winners of these upgraded Eurofighters if they can close deals in 2025 for 54 and 40 jets, respectively.

They Said It
“There’s no one force structure.”

— Lt. Gen. David Harris, discussing the Air Force’s new One Force Design.

He described the new design’s 3 mission areas but emphasized it's a concept, not a force structure or a plan.

That will likely take some wind out of its sails in Congress.

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Knowledge Bombs

• Lockheed Martin closed a $11.8B deal for F-35 Lot 18 production (145 jets)

• Leonardo UK is supplying BriteCloud expendable emitting decoys for US F-35s

• Beechcraft's T-6 Texan II was selected to be Japan’s next flight trainer

• True Anomaly completed the second test mission for its Jackal maneuvering satellite system

• Northrop Grumman won the Navy’s $3.5B E-130J TACAMO nuclear command, control, and communications aircraft program

• India ordered 12 locally-built Su-30MKI jets for $1.5B

• The Pentagon announced a new $2.5B aid package for Ukraine (half is drawdown, half is to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI)

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ANSWER
D, the Navy. In 1944, the US Navy's Special Task Air Group One (STAG-1) conducted pioneering combat missions using the TDR-1, a twin-engine wood-pressed 400-mile assault drone equipped with a 2,000-pound bomb and a TV camera in its nose. These drones were controlled by TBM-1C Avenger torpedo bomber, flown by a controller in the rear cockpit using a 5-inch TV displaying the nose camera. 50 TDR-1 drones were deployed to the South Pacific to attack Japanese-held island positions, recording 31 hits in combat. Sounds like something a modern F-15EX backseat would be good for…