🔷 Defending the High North

Defending the High North

The Pentagon just released a new Arctic strategy, which seeks a “monitor-and-respond” approach aligned with 3 lines of effort. Like most wave-top documents loaded with buzzwords, catchphrases, and a memorable hook, this document is no different. The lines of effort use a “three-E hook”:

1. Enhance the Joint Force’s Arctic capabilities to bolster a monitor-and-respond approach

2. Engage with everyone possible to strengthen integrated deterrence and increase shared security

3. Exercise presence in the Arctic by training both independently and alongside Allies and partners

So What

The 26-page document essentially re-arranges the words from the more-detailed 9-month-old 58-page implementation plan for the National Strategy for the Arctic Region (NSAR). While the latter had 30 objectives and 200 action items, the new document is much more hand-wavy.

One key distinction is that one is a Pentagon document, and one is a national document. This seems nuanced until you consider the US Coast Guard.

The puddle pirate force plays an out-sized role—mentioned in the NSAR more than all the military services combined—yet falls under Homeland Security, not the Department of Defense. In fact, the Coast Guard is mentioned just 1 time in the Pentagon’s new strategy and basically says, ‘We will work with them.’

Warming Waters

Melting sea ice is quickly making the Artic top-of mind.

The so-called Northern Sea Route promises to cut the trade distance route between Asia and Europe over the traditional Suez Canal trade route. Here are some key milestones achieved in the past year:

• Russia's Kaliningrad received its first cargo ship via the Northern Sea Route

• Russian energy giant Gazprom delivered its first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China via the route 

• A Chinese company started the first regular container shipping service between China and Russia via the route

• A Chinese cargo ship became the first Chinese ship ever to reach Europe using the route

This isn’t just about transiting the Arctic, though; it’s also about presence and staking claims.

There are billions of dollars in oil and gas reserves under the Arctic sea floor that have yet to be touched, along with an estimated $2 trillion in minerals, including vast amounts of rare earth metals—key elements in virtually every piece of modern electronics, including all military technology, and a market that China dominates. 

Breaking the Ice

As Arctic access opens up, it’s becoming a strategic imperative to maintain access as part of the global commons—a mission traditionally performed by the US Navy. But in the Arctic, the US Coast Guard is charged with this mission

A key niche enabler for any nation wanting a presence in the Arctic is icebreaker ships. The US icebreaker fleet consists of a whopping 2 ships, whereas Russia is quickly building a fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers (13 ships in total, 9 are nuke-powered).

Good news that also hit in the past week: The US, Canada, and Finland announced a strategic agreement to build ice-breaking ships together.

Rising Tensions

One of the alliances in play is the Arctic Council which consists of 8 nations: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, and the US.

Of note, since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. This has created a 7v1 situation on the council with NATO vs Russia.

China is not on the council because it doesn’t have territorial claims—but they are a key power player. China has 2 ice breakers, with a third planned to set sail in 2025 to support Xi Jinping’s “Polar Silk Road” initiative.

And as the new strategy calls out, China and Russia working together in the Artic is a big concern. China may have ambitions but no territory, but Russia has both covered in spades. They have the largest land border in the Arctic and a massive laydown of northern military bases.

Meanwhile, the US has only a handful of periodically occupied locations. Thule Air Base, Greenland (now Pituffik Space Base) is the Pentagon’s northernmost base and played a pivotal role during the Cold War, but it’s now used to surveil orbits, not air and maritime domains. 

What Now

Give the document props for saying the quiet part out loud: the biggest risk to the plan is finding a way to fund it against the laundry list of global commitments the Pentagon already has.

In that regard, like most Pentagon strategy documents, it isn’t a ‘strategy’ because it lacks the associated resources to execute it.

This next year will be telling to see if this paper tiger gets any teeth.

In That Number

3,748

The US revealed it has 3,748 nuclear warheads, the first public inventory disclosure since 2021.

Check out this chart where this plots over time since 1945.

TRIVIA

On this day in 1945, a Mitchell B-25 bomber crashed into the 79^th floor of the Empire State Building. What was the primary cause?

A) engine failure
B) fog
C) birdstrike
D) heavy rain

On the Radar

The Air Force and Boeing finally reached a deal on a prototype E-7 Wedgetail. The service awarded Boeing a $1.2B contract in February 2023 to start working on a rapid prototype but quickly ran into issues once the US Air Force requirements were deemed further apart than the UK E-7 variant that was used as a planning factor.

• The Merge’s Take: The Air Force plans to buy 26 E-7s by 2032, but the near-term pain point is when the first prototypes will be real. Right now, the ‘rapid’ prototype program has them showing up in 2027—4 years after the contract. Pricing and contract issues aside, the reason is simple: it takes Boeing 4 years to build each E-7. A lot can change in 4 years…

An updated 6th-gen fighter design for the UK-Italy-Japan Tempest fighter was unveiled last week. The full-scale mock-up’s large wings hint that it's more optimized for range and payload than previous UK and Japanese concepts.

• The Merge’s Take: This reinforces what is being seen elsewhere: that range and payload are quickly becoming more prized than speed and maneuverability attributes for the next generation of fighter jets. The real question isn’t about attributes, though—its affordability. The GCAP fighter won’t field until 2035, and there are hints it may not survive the UK’s Strategy Defense Review as it looks to prioritize equipment and readiness for more immediate threats that rhyme with Russia. Industry is bullish, though, and intends to form a joint venture in the coming months. Meanwhile, GCAP is still open-ish to bringing on an additional paying partner to the program—which rhymes with Saudi Arabia.

The Air Force might reopen competition for the ground infrastructure portion of the Sentinel ICBM program. The news comes after the program cost estimate jumped to $141B—a whopping 81 percent increase.

• The Merge’s Take: This makes a ton of sense and the infrastructure part of this program is so massive it could be its own program of record with an entire ecosystem of contractors. Check out our deep dive for what went wrong and some pieces in play for the upcoming year.

They Said It
“The operator back in 2019 was saying, ‘How would I fight this?’… It’s probably not INDOPACOM with a big button going ‘Fire! Fire! Fire! Fire! Fire!’ 5,000 times, but it’s probably also not like kids’ soccer, where everyone just chases the ball.”

— Tom “Shotgun” Browning, the Pentagon’s Assistant Secretary for Research and Engineering, on the impetus for the Joint Fires Network, which matches targets and weapons across a theater. JFN 1.0 will be out by the end of the year, and JFN 2.0 will follow in 2025.

Knowledge Bombs

• General Atomics is working on a carrier-capable drone variant of its Gambit modular drone family

• GE and Kratos unveiled a new family of attritable turbine engines aimed at cruise missiles and collaborative combat aircraft

• Boeing and Antonov signed an agreement to collaborate on drones, presumably for Ukraine

• Leonardo announced the M-346 Block 20 capability enhancement program for its advanced jet trainer

• Northrop Grumman conducted an anechoic chamber test of the F-16’s new EW system (the first test with the system installed in the jet)

• Slovakia received the first 2 of 14 new F-16 Block 70/72 fighter jets

• Northrop Grumman received a $1.5B contract mod for 9 E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft (4 for the Navy, 5 for Japan)

• The Farnborough International Airshow was this past week. Here’s a wave-top summary of the civil and defense highlights.

🎁Earn Free Merch!🎁 

Hey. Don't keep us a secret!
Share the Merge = earn free swag. It's that simple.

You currently have 0 referrals, only 3 away from receiving Stickers.

Or copy and paste this link: https://themerge.co/subscribe?ref=PLACEHOLDER

ANSWER
B, thick fog. The B-25 Mitchell bomber was flying from Bedford, Massachusetts, to LaGuardia Airport in New York City. As it came into the metropolitan area, air traffic controllers diverted the plane to Newark Airport due to thick fog. The new flight path took the B-25 over Manhattan, and the crew flew low and slow to maintain visual with the ground. It came suddenly across the Chrysler building, swerved to avoid it, and ended up crashing into the Empire State Building. The accident killed 14 people.