🔷 Air Force Hawkeye

Wedgetail Out:
Hawkeye In

The first prototype US Air Force’s planned 26 E-7 Wedgetail AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning & Control) fleet hasn’t arrived yet, but its future is already in doubt.

Extinction?

During hearings on Capitol Hill this week, Pentagon leadership called the Boeing 737-based E-7 “sort of late, more expensive and gold plated” and "not survivable in the modern battlefield."

Shots fired.

The Air Force is requesting $200M to finish E-7 R&D with the 2 prototypes it committed to, but no funds for production. If $200M sounds like a lot, consider this: less than a year ago, the Air Force awarded a $2.5B contract to Boeing to rapidly prototype those 2 E-7s to field…in 2027.

Space

The Pentagon is betting big on space to take on the role of the AMTI mission (air moving target indicator).

If that sounds familiar…it's because it is. That narrative has been around for years, but the problem is…space still isn’t ready yet, the E-3 AWACS is aging out, and the E-7 is too much, too late.

If only there were another AWACS in production and in service with the US military…

Hawkeye!

The bridge solution: Ditch the E-7 Wedgetail plan and buy Navy E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes!

Yes, that funny-looking twin-prop plane designed in the 1950s that flies from carriers and uses probe-and-drogue refueling.

The diminutive mini-AWACS.

The E-2D.

Dollars and Sense

The idea isn’t as crazy as it may sound.

The E-2D is a mature platform, and it's already operational with the US Navy today.

It also costs less than half what the E-7 does and can be produced at ~6 per year pretty easily.

And the timing is perfect: The Navy is just starting to taper off orders, so this keeps the existing E-2D line running at full steam. Yes, those old-looking aircraft are new builds.

Capability-wise, don’t let the looks deceive you—Air Force operators who’ve flown with the E-2D during large force test and training missions can attest to what it can do.

Joint Unit 

The cherry on top: the E-2D is perfect for expeditionary use, which is likely why the Hawkeyes the Pentagon is requesting are slated for a new joint expeditionary unit.

Ok, that’s not exactly true. “Expeditionary” in Navy parlance means it’s land-based, assigned to support Air Force operations, and jointly manned by Air Force and Navy aviators—much like the 4 expeditionary EA-18G squadrons.

However, the E-2D’s diminutive size and slider-ruler-designed carrier ruggedness are ideal for Agile Combat Employment (ACE), too.

Looking Ahead

Does the E-2D replace the E-7 capability-wise on any spec sheet? Nope.

Does the E-2D solve a very acute strategic capability gap in airborne command & control and distributed operations for battle management? Yes.

The E-2D seems like a strong, simple bridge to space-based AMTI—whenever that day comes.

We did not have ‘Air Force E-2D’ and a ‘joint expeditionary squadron’ on our 2025 bingo card, but here we are.

The logic makes so much sense.

Maybe too much sense.

Move quickly before someone tries to kill the idea!

In That Number

67%

During discussions over the paused F/A-XX 6th-gen fighter program, Secretary John Phelan revealed that 67% of all Navy programs are over budget, raising concerns about contract management and cost overruns.

Ouch.

TRIVIA

On this day in 1944, the US launched the invasion of Saipan, triggering the Battle of the Philippine Sea. This decisive clash shattered Japanese carrier-based airpower and paved the way for the occupation of Saipan, putting the major cities of the Japanese home islands within the range of B-29 bombers.

What nickname did the aerial battle become known by?

A) The Marianas Turkey Shoot
B) The Great Pacific Dogfight
C) The Philippines Firestorm

On the Radar

F-47 production complex takes shape. Boeing's massive St. Louis factory expansion for the F-47 fighter will begin opening its first facilities in 2026, with the entire 1.1M square-foot complex scheduled for completion by 2030. This timeline provides the first real insight into when Boeing will be ready to ramp up full-rate production of the Air Force’s highly anticipated 6th-gen fighter jet.

• The Merge's Take: Boeing recently revealed it invested more into winning the F-47 program than any other defense program in the company’s history—which apparently also includes production facilities. IYDK: One of the key differences in US defense industry is that Boeing owns their aircraft production facilities (F-15, F/A-18, F-47, MQ-25), whereas companies like Lockheed Martin largely use government-owned facilities (F-35, C-130).

The Ghost Bat crossroads. Australia's homegrown Boeing MQ-28 Ghost Bat faces an uncertain future as the Royal Australian Air Force's developmental program concludes at the end of 2025. The fleet of 8 Block 1 prototypes recently surpassed 100 flights, and while $400M is committed for 3 Block 2 aircraft, Hogan acknowledged that the current version "is probably not what we need longer term" for a Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). Despite un-armed posturing from Australia, Boeing is racing to integrate and fire a live missile off the MQ-28 this year to cement the CCA’s position in the market, even if it isn’t Australia.

• The Merge's Take: Expect the blood in the water to attract General Atomics (FQ-42), Anduril (FQ-44), and at least 1-2 other vendors who are likely building CCAs in secrecy. The fascinating paradox is that Australia has developed their first indigenous military aircraft in over 50 years but may kill it before it even reaches operational status. Consider this a byproduct of the paradigm shift in acquisition for affordable mass: iterate quickly, upgrade constantly, and don't get too emotionally (or financially) attached to any platform…yet.

Gripen fighter AI Pilot. Saab is flight-testing an AI-controlled Gripen E fighter jet against a human-piloted Gripen D. The agent, named Centaur, was developed by Germany’s Helsing and autonomously executed beyond-visual-range (BVR) scenarios.

• The Merge's Take: Expect more news like that as the autonomous tech matures and vendors wade into adoption. Congrats to Saab, but one point to clarify. They state that this is "the first publicly known instance of AI being tested in a fighter jet beyond visual range." This isn’t true. Within the widely advertised DARPA ACE dogfighting X-62 VISTA program was an Air Force initiative called AACO (Autonomous Air Combat Operations). There is very little press about it, but one thing that is public is that they used the modified F-16 to do 1v1 BVR scenarios.

They Said It

“To steal a phrase from children’s literature, selling off the low 3 band is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad idea,”
— Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, on the US potentially auctioning off part of the S-band (~3.0 GHz) spectrum to commercial companies.

This band is optimal for radar looking for very small, fast-moving objects at large distances—a key attribute for US missile defense systems and the Golden Dome initiative.

Knowledge Bombs

• The Philippines ordered 12 more FA-50 light attack jets from South Korea

• Pakistan is set to receive 30+ FC-31 jets from China, beginning within months

• China satellites were spotted in a GEO orbital docking maneuver

• The Air Force is ending its AFWERX Agility Prime eVTOL project

• Bulgaria received its second F-16 Block 70 aircraft

• The Navy is equipping destroyers with anti-ship Tomahawk missile variants

• Skyways won a $37M Air Force contract to produce a fleet of cargo drones (carries 100 lbs. 1,000 miles)

• Canada earmarked $6.6B in new funding this year to shore up defense and reduce ties to the US

• JetZero is investing $4.7B to build Blended Wing-Body aircraft factory in North Carolina

• Dawn Aerospace sold its 1st Aurora suborbital spaceplane to…Oklahoma

• Indonesia signed a deal with TAI to buy 48 KAAN 5th-gen fighter jets

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ANSWER
A. The Marianas Turkey Shoot nickname highlighted the overwhelming success of the American pilots during the aerial battle. The US lost 100 aircraft, but destroyed 600+ aircraft and sank several ships, including 3 carriers.