🔷 5-Ring Warfare

Operational War:
From Desert Storm to China

This week, 34 years ago, the air campaign for Desert Storm began. But where did it come from? Why was it architected the way it was? What went into what targets were selected?

You have questions, and we have answers—straight from the source.

We had the privilege of interviewing retired Air Force Colonel John Warden to tell us all about it.

John is a pioneer who shaped how the modern world thinks about warfare—specifically the concepts of parallel attack, centers of gravity, and the operational level of war.

He is most noted as the creator of Warden’s Five Rings and the architect of the Gulf War air campaign—but there’s much more than that.

Our interview spanned how his Vietnam experience shaped his thought logic and how his tours in the Pentagon—and a series of events—put him in the right place at the right time with the right idea for what became Operation Desert Storm.

Finally, we talked about how the US took the wrong lessons from the campaign, how China took all the right ones, and the blind spot the US needs to address ASAP to prevent a war.

This is a special episode you don’t want to miss.

Check it out!

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In That Number

$20 Billion

The Air Force estimates it will cost $20 Billion to complete the development of its NGAD fighter.

For perspective, it cost $32 Billion—$45 Billion in today’s money—to develop the F-22 Raptor that NGAD is set to replace.

TRIVIA

On January 16, 1991, Operation Senior Surprise kicked off the larger Operation Desert Storm air campaign. What was the gist of the operation?

A) AH-64 Hellfire attack on a radar site

B) F-117 air strikes using laser-guided bombs

C) B-52 launching GPS-guided cruise missiles

On the Radar

The first operational EPAWSS F-15E Strike Eagles are in the fleet. Two F-15Es equipped with the Eagle Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS) were delivered to RAF Lakenheath, UK. This news comes right as the Air Force approved full-rate production of the EW system, ending a 15-year struggle to upgrade the original 1980s system.

• The Merge’s Take: F-15 EPAWSS lived on the verge of cancellation for many years due to internal politics. It appears it's finally out of the woods, but its 4th-gen cousin is not. The F-16 Integrated Viper Electronic Warfare Suite (IVEWS) is currently in flight test but living the same nightmare that EPAWSS went through—production commitment was defunded to support other programs.

• The Merge’s Spicy Take: It’s criminal to modernize most of the F-16 to keep them operationally relevant into the 2040s but then skimp on the survivability system that lets them detect, disrupt, and deny enemy threats. Meanwhile, new international F-16s are getting updated EW systems.

The Air Force adjusts the T-7 jet trainer program…again. The latest move trades production money to increase the test fleet from 5 to 9 jets, a move that will accelerate flight testing and provide jet availability to create the new training syllabus required once the T-7 is operational. The move sets an initial operational capability (IOC) date to 2027—3 years after the original timeline but 1 year earlier than the previous plan.

• The Merge’s Take: T-7 program has been plagued by development issues—not good for a 351-jet $9.2B fixed-price contract. Boeing has incurred almost $1B in losses on the program to date but hopes to make it back once in production.

• The Merge’s Spicy Take: What’s not captured in the costs are the immense time, energy, and resources required from the Air Force. The program requirements were set in 2010, sent to industry (RFP) in 2015, awarded to Boeing in 2018…and hopefully operational in 2027—for what’s arguably a commercial trainer jet with no combat-hardened requirements. It should not be this hard.

They Said It
“Here’s an efficiency for you, can we please stop buying C-130s? We’ve got enough.”

— Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, on issues DOGE will face trying to save money while dealing with Congressional injects to the budget

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Knowledge Bombs

• Lockheed Martin approved synthetic fuel (up to 50% blend) for the F-35 and Norway seized the day—they flew F-35s using synthetic fuel for the first time

• Anduril picked Columbus, Ohio for its new ‘Arsenal’ factory

• Turkey's ANKA III flying wing drone dropped a guided bomb from its internal weapons bays for the first time (video)

• Oshkosh was awarded a $29M contract to integrate Forterra’s autonomous driving onto the unmanned ROGUE Fires mobile missile launchers

• Varda Space’s second mission launched with an Air Force payload to measure data during hypersonic reentry

• Aptima won a DHA SBIR contract to advance its neuro-cognitive monitoring for US military pilots

• Blue Origin's New Glenn reached orbit on its first launch

• The NGA selected 13 companies for a $200M contract to provide commercial satellite data and analytics

• Thailand will evaluate Gripen fighters for highway operations next month as it leans toward a Gripen E/F purchase over F-16 Block 70/72s

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ANSWER
Operation Senior Surprise, unofficially coined Operation Secret Squirrel, was the classified 7 B-52, 35-hour mission to launch recently converted GPS-guided AGM-86C conventional air-launched cruise missiles (CALCM) against strategic targets to kick off the Gulf War air campaign. It was the longest airstrike in history up that point, employed the first GPS weapons in combat, and the mission remained classified until 16 January 1992, a full year after the mission.