🔷 The Unpaid $1T Deterrence Bill

The Nuke Bill is Due

No one wants a world-ending nuclear war.

Strategic deterrence aims to prevent this by making the cost unacceptable, and most major powers rely on a nuclear triad to do this.

In the US, this means intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), subs with submarine-launched missiles, and bombers equipped with stand-in and stand-off nuclear weapons.

Right now, every part of this triad—and its command and control—is overdue for modernization, creating a perfect storm.

$1 Trillion Bill

The bill is enormous.

Across the triad, modernization will cost almost $1 trillion between now and 2034.

That amounts to $95B a year, equal to the combined annual budgets of the Marine Corps and Space Force.

The biggest line-item: the Navy’s Columbia-class program, which will field 12 new ballistic missile submarines (SSBN). The program is expected to cost $228B over the next 10 years.

The Navy’s Deterrence Fund

Around 2010, naval advocates warned that the cost of this SSBN modernization would cripple the Navy’s shipbuilding budget and fleet readiness.

By 2013, the Navy realized this too and requested $60B in supplemental funding to help cover some of the costs of the SSBN program.

In 2015, Congress realized the cost burden and created the National Sea-Based Deterrence Fund (NSBDF) to manage the SSBN program outside the normal shipbuilding account.

The Air Force?

As this was taking shape, the Air Force had signaled a similar narrative—modernizing two-thirds of the triad would cripple its modernization efforts too, and a fund outside the service could solve for this.

That never manifested.

Today, the B-21 bomber and LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM programs are projected to cost $205B through 2034. And don’t forget about the $16B AGM-181 nuclear cruise missile program.

Then there’s all the C2 modernization.

The Pitch

There are 2 things that should be done—and both are required.

First, there should be a serious debate about establishing a National Deterrence Fund (NDF). This recognizes that the nuclear mission is a national obligation, not an internal service trade-off. Congress recognized that truth for the Navy. It must now do the same for the Air Force. The Sentinel ICBM program was called the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent for a reason.

Second, fund it.

Since it’s all ‘green money,’ without dedicated budget top-line increases (TOA in Pentagon speak), all of this is just a budget gimmick. This was acknowledged 10 years ago when the submarine NSBDF was created, and no one had a plan to fund it.

Leadership at the time even predicted this would become a critical mess in the mid-2020s without reform on where the money is coming from.

Well…here we are.

More TOA

The good: This week Congress unveiled a $150B boost to the Pentagon’s budget

The bad: It’s a good start—not the solution. This only has $13B for nuclear modernization, or about 13% budget relief of 1 year of the $95B annual budget burden

The ugly: this plus-up could create a bad precedent on funding allocation, which would continue to not solve the funding issue with nuclear modernization.

The Opportunity

A deterrence fund should only earn that name if it has….funding!

As the Trump administration weighs a Nuclear Posture Review, it should also review the process for how to fund it.

The nuclear mission is a national obligation, not an internal service trade-off.

The burden to fund it is real—and its real heavy.

In That Number

$2.72 trillion

Global military spending surged to an unprecedented $2.72 trillion in 2024, jumping 9.4% from the previous year and marking the steepest annual increase since the end of the Cold War.

TRIVIA

The model makers for Star Wars textured the Millennium Falcon with parts from scrapped WWII model kits—tanks, planes, and artillery. Look closely and you’ll spot hatches and rear decks from Panther and Tiger tanks worked into the Falcon’s hull.

Which iconic WWII aircraft inspired the Millennium Falcon’s cockpit design?

A. Boeing B-29 Superfortress
B. Messerschmitt Bf 109
C. North American P-51 Mustang

On the Radar

Airpower is getting a boost in the proposed $150B Congressional plus-up. The bill adds $7.2B in funding: $3.15B for more F-15EXs, $678M to accelerate CCAs, $474M for more EA-37B Compass Calls, $400M to accelerate F-47 NGAD, $440M for more C-130Js, $361M to keep its 32 older Block 20 F-22s operating, $200M in comm upgrades for the C-17 and KC-135 fleets, and $50M for F-16 EW upgrades. Naval airpower would get $500M to accelerate F/A-XX NGAD and $100M to accelerate the MQ-25.

• The Merge’s Take: What’s not in the $150B package is probably a better topic. There is nothing for F-35, the Pentagon’s flagship 5th-gen fighter. This could signal that Congress is still frustrated over the program’s technical struggles and the cost/schedule issues with the $16.5B Block 4 upgrade.

Autonomous helicopters are gaining momentum, and industry teams are forming. The Army awarded a $15M contract to Near Earth Autonomy and Honeywell for an autonomous H-60 Black Hawk solution. Near Earth and Honeywell are also partnered with Leonardo to do the same thing for an unmanned AW139 for the Marine Corps’ Aerial Logistics Connector (ALC) program. They are competing against Airbus’ MQ-72C, an unmanned variant of the UH-72 Lakota; Airbus is teaming with Shield AI for the autonomy. Last but not least, Sikorsky is bringing their autonomous H-60 solution developed from DARPA.

• The Merge’s Take: The Marine Corps, Army, and industry are all betting that autonomy can transform medium-lift utility helicopters into reliable unmanned logistics platforms. Keep an eye on the Air Force, they may be the dark horse and not even know it yet. The EABO logistics problem the Marine Corps is looking to solve looks almost the same as the Air Force’s ACE logistical problem.

They Said It

“And that's where you start to see in the story, things starting to crumble.”

— Alex Miller, the Army’s chief technology officer, on the new M10 Booker. It’s a lightweight tank the Army doesn’t need and can’t use and is now trying to figure out what to do with them; potentially killing the program with only a handful of tanks delivered.

The story is worth the click.

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Knowledge Bombs

• The Air Force revealed pictures of the first YFQ-44 CCA—both the YFQ-42 and 44 are in ground testing ahead of first flights later this year

• The UK unveiled Storm Shroud, a stand-in jamming drone based on the Tekever AR3

• General Atomics delivered the first MQ-9A Block 5 ER to the Marine Corps

• The Army signaled it will stop buying MQ-1C drones

• India and France agreed on a $7.5B deal for 26 Rafale fighters

• Ursa Major won a $28M contract to flight demo a storable liquid rocket system for hypersonic applications

• The Air Force completed its operational assessment of the F-16 IVEWS jamming system (Northrop Grumman)

• True Anomaly secured $260M in Series C funding to expand production of its highly maneuverable satellites

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ANSWER
A. Boeing B-29 Superfortress. Many Star Wars ships and sounds were inspired by WWII aviation.